If your horse dies, what would you do?

A Native American proverb says, "If your horse is dead, it's time to get off."

Don't say "What kind of saying is that?" because, whether in daily life or in business, we don’t get off our horse even if it’s dead. In fact, there's even a name for this: "The Dead Horse Theory."

This theory, which might seem like an April Fool's joke or a stale joke, actually exists, and it carries subtle messages for individuals, leaders, and managers at all levels. If you're wondering who would try to ride a dead horse, let's examine together the difficulties of giving up habits and hopes.

If your horse is dead, it's time to get off.
Berlin Brandenburg Airport (BER)
The story of Berlin Brandenburg Airport (BER) seems to be a perfect example of the Dead Horse Theory in action. The idea for this airport emerged in the 1990s, and construction was planned to be completed by October 2011. However, this goal was constantly postponed. Not only was the timeline delayed, but the costs also increased exponentially.

So, why did this happen? Because, in reality, the project was doomed to fail from the start, but no one wanted to accept that truth. At some point, the billions already invested made it impossible to give up.

Two years after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, in May 1991, a state-supported company called Berlin Brandenburg Airport Holding was established. The first CEO was appointed from the Mayor of Berlin. From day one, the project faced endless problems. Plans were constantly changing, lawsuits were filed, and failed privatization attempts came one after another. Finally, in 2006, all legal and bureaucratic obstacles were overcome, and construction began. The goal was for the project to be completed within five years and opened in October 2011. But things did not go as planned.

By 2009, the construction budget was set at 2.83 billion euros. However, as time passed, it became clear that this amount did not reflect the reality. The budget was revised first in 2012 and increased to 4.3 billion euros, nearly double the initial budget. Additional support was received from the European Union and the German government at various times, as if they were trying to resurrect a dead horse.

Costs continued to rise due to unforeseen expenses, such as soundproofing for surrounding buildings, and the construction of a metro station that was built but could not be used. Legal cases were filed related to these costs, further increasing the expenses. Despite all these setbacks, the CEO's highly generous annual salary of 500,000 euros made the situation even worse.

By 2015, the budget had reached 6.8 billion euros, and by 2018, it had soared to 9.4 billion euros, but no turning back was possible. At the worst possible time, during the pandemic, when the airport finally opened in 2020, the total costs had surpassed 10 billion euros. Due to the pandemic's effects, the expected passenger numbers could not be reached, and the accounts continued to show losses. For some cultures like ours, these things are quite ordinary, but for the disciplined Germans?

Thankfully, the airport was eventually completed. However, it took 14 years from the groundbreaking and 29 years from the official plan, and it cost four times its original budget to open. The airport became a textbook example of the Dead Horse Theory. As the Berlin administration kept transferring money to solve problems, it often led to new problems or the expansion of existing ones. It was as if they kept whipping a dead horse, hoping it might start running.

Dead Horses in Business
Although not as large as the BER airport project, in business, one encounters dead horses in various scales. Usually, the fact that the horse is dead is ignored, and methods like the following are tried:

• Buying a stronger whip.
• Changing the rider.
• Threatening to fire the horse.
• Forming a committee to examine the horse.
• Visiting other countries to see how they ride dead horses.
• Lowering the standards so that dead horses can be included.
• Reclassifying the dead horse as "lifeless."
• Hiring external contractors to ride the dead horse.
• Harnessing several dead horses together to increase speed.
• Providing additional funds and/or training to improve the performance of the dead horse.
• Conducting a productivity study to see if lighter riders improve the dead horse's performance.
• Announcing that the dead horse doesn't require food, making it more cost-effective and contributing more to the economy than other horses with fewer additional expenses.
• Redefining the performance requirements for all horses.
• Promoting the dead horse to an auditor position responsible for renting a new horse.

?️ The list is quoted from the article "Dead Horse Theory: How to Resurrect a Failed Project."

Stop Whipping the Dead Horse
The Dead Horse Theory can be applied in all areas of life. In business, personal relationships, or individual goals, if something isn't going right and you're constantly hitting a wall, forcing the situation is pointless. Instead of being persistent, it's wiser to assess the situation and find a new way forward.

Whipping a dead horse only wastes more energy and time. It also reduces your productivity and lowers your motivation. Instead, you can look for new ways to use your energy and resources more efficiently.

If you think you haven't faced such an issue after reading this, I recommend you temporarily turn on your "dead horse detectors" and examine your surroundings. You'll see that the people, companies, and even countries around you resist giving up on their dead horses. After observing these, take another look at your life and see if your horses are still standing strong.

But you said in your other articles not to give up, 21st century, how will I know when to give up, you may ask. We must admit that diagnosing a horse as dead is not an easy task. But we hope our article on the Sunk Cost Fallacy may offer some support in this regard, especially if your inability to give up is due to the investments, both financial and emotional, you've made.